According to BMI, the bearish outlook for China's economy is more credible now than at any point in recent history. With China’s housing market exhibiting characteristics typically seen at the end of a bubble, a steep drop in house prices as developers offload inventory would pose a risk of a cash crunch to businesses operating in China, especially property developers and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). As the repayment capacity of loans given to local government investment vehicles increasingly comes under threat, BMI also expects a pronounced correction in investment spending and instability in China’s banking sector.
From banking sector exposure and weak fiscal and monetary position, the report also focuses on China’s consumer market and its ability to shoulder the burden of growth should Chinese export growth fall due to a weakening US dollar and lower import demand from the US and Europe.
Moreover "China 2012: From Miracle to Meltdown" assesses the impact of a Chinese hard landing on the regional economy. While no country would be immune from a Chinese hard landing, BMI argues that Australia is most precariously positioned to suffer the consequences of this severe economic slowdown. A Chinese hard landing would push the Australian economy over the edge, likely ushering in a recession and potentially triggering a financial crisis.
Given the importance of China to the global economy, the report enables global investors, strategists and decision-makers across the corporate spectrum to identify business growth opportunities, avoid market risks and aid strategic planning activities over the short, medium and long term.
Business Monitor International (BMI) established in 1984 with headquarters in London is recognised as a leading independent source for analysis and forecasts on Country Risk and Industry, spanning 175 countries. BMI provides research to multinational corporations, banks, funds, research centres and governments in 140 countries around the world, including over 00 of the Fortune Global 500 companies.