PM address to the nation on coronavirus: 10 May 2020

It is now almost two months since the people of this country began to put up with restrictions on their freedom – your freedom – of a kind that we have never seen before in peace or war.

And you have shown the good sense to support those rules overwhelmingly.

You have put up with all the hardships of that programme of social distancing.

Because you understand that as things stand, and as the experience of every other country has shown, it’s the only way to defeat the coronavirus - the most vicious threat this country has faced in my lifetime.

And though the death toll has been tragic, and the suffering immense.

And though we grieve for all those we have lost.

It is a fact that by adopting those measures we prevented this country from being engulfed by what could have been a catastrophe in which the reasonable worst case scenario was half a million fatalities.

And it is thanks to your effort and sacrifice in stopping the spread of this disease that the death rate is coming down and hospital admissions are coming down.

And thanks to you we have protected our NHS and saved many thousands of lives.

And so I know - you know - that it would be madness now to throw away that achievement by allowing a second spike.

We must stay alert.

We must continue to control the virus and save lives.

And yet we must also recognise that this campaign against the virus has come at colossal cost to our way of life.

We can see it all around us in the shuttered shops and abandoned businesses and darkened pubs and restaurants.

And there are millions of people who are both fearful of this terrible disease, and at the same time also fearful of what this long period of enforced inactivity will do to their livelihoods and their mental and physical wellbeing.

To their futures and the futures of their children.

So I want to provide tonight - for you - the shape of a plan to address both fears.

Both to beat the virus and provide the first sketch of a road map for reopening society.

A sense of the way ahead, and when and how and on what basis we will take the decisions to proceed.

I will be setting out more details in Parliament tomorrow and taking questions from the public in the evening.

I have consulted across the political spectrum, across all four nations of the UK.

And though different parts of the country are experiencing the pandemic at different rates.

And though it is right to be flexible in our response.

I believe that as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom – Scotland, England, Wales, Northern Ireland, there is a strong resolve to defeat this together.

And today a general consensus on what we could do.

And I stress could.

Because although we have a plan, it is a conditional plan.

And since our priority is to protect the public and save lives, we cannot move forward unless we satisfy the five tests.

We must protect our NHS.

We must see sustained falls in the death rate.

We must see sustained and considerable falls in the rate of infection.

We must sort out our challenges in getting enough PPE to the people who need it, and yes, it is a global problem but we must fix it.

And last, we must make sure that any measures we take do not force the reproduction rate of the disease - the R - back up over one, so that we have the kind of exponential growth we were facing a few weeks ago.

And to chart our progress and to avoid going back to square one, we are establishing a new Covid Alert System run by a new Joint Biosecurity Centre.

And that Covid Alert Level will be determined primarily by R and the number of coronavirus cases.

And in turn that Covid Alert Level will tell us how tough we have to be in our social distancing measures – the lower the level the fewer the measures.

The higher the level, the tougher and stricter we will have to be.

There will be five alert levels.

Level One means the disease is no longer present in the UK and Level Five is the most critical – the kind of situation we could have had if the NHS had been overwhelmed.

Over the period of the lockdown we have been in Level Four, and it is thanks to your sacrifice we are now in a position to begin to move in steps to Level Three.

And as we go everyone will have a role to play in keeping the R down.

By staying alert and following the rules.

And to keep pushing the number of infections down there are two more things we must do.

We must reverse rapidly the awful epidemics in care homes and in the NHS, and though the numbers are coming down sharply now, there is plainly much more to be done.

And if we are to control this virus, then we must have a world-beating system for testing potential victims, and for tracing their contacts.

So that – all told - we are testing literally hundreds of thousands of people every day.

We have made fast progress on testing – but there is so much more to do now, and we can.

When this began, we hadn’t seen this disease before, and we didn’t fully understand its effects.

With every day we are getting more and more data.

We are shining the light of science on this invisible killer, and we will pick it up where it strikes.

Because our new system will be able in time to detect local flare-ups – in your area – as well as giving us a national picture.

And yet when I look at where we are tonight, we have the R below one, between 0.5 and 0.9 – but potentially only just below one.

And though we have made progress in satisfying at least some of the conditions I have given.

We have by no means fulfilled all of them.

And so no, this is not the time simply to end the lockdown this week.

Instead we are taking the first careful steps to modify our measures.

And the first step is a change of emphasis that we hope that people will act on this week.

We said that you should work from home if you can, and only go to work if you must.

We now need to stress that anyone who can’t work from home, for instance those in construction or manufacturing, should be actively encouraged to go to work.

And we want it to be safe for you to get to work. So you should avoid public transport if at all possible – because we must and will maintain social distancing, and capacity will therefore be limited.

So work from home if you can, but you should go to work if you can’t work from home.

And to ensure you are safe at work we have been working to establish new guidance for employers to make workplaces COVID-secure.

And when you do go to work, if possible do so by car or even better by walking or bicycle. But just as with workplaces, public transport operators will also be following COVID-secure standards.

And from this Wednesday, we want to encourage people to take more and even unlimited amounts of outdoor exercise.

You can sit in the sun in your local park, you can drive to other destinations, you can even play sports but only with members of your own household.

You must obey the rules on social distancing and to enforce those rules we will increase the fines for the small minority who break them.

And so every day, with ever increasing data, we will be monitoring the R and the number of new infections, and the progress we are making, and if we as a nation begin to fulfil the conditions I have set out, then in the next few weeks and months we may be able to go further.

In step two – at the earliest by June 1 – after half term – we believe we may be in a position to begin the phased reopening of shops and to get primary pupils back into schools, in stages, beginning with reception, Year 1 and Year 6.

Our ambition is that secondary pupils facing exams next year will get at least some time with their teachers before the holidays. And we will shortly be setting out detailed guidance on how to make it work in schools and shops and on transport.

And step three - at the earliest by July - and subject to all these conditions and further scientific advice; if and only if the numbers support it, we will hope to re-open at least some of the hospitality industry and other public places, provided they are safe and enforce social distancing.

Throughout this period of the next two months we will be driven not by mere hope or economic necessity. We are going to be driven by the science, the data and public health.

And I must stress again that all of this is conditional, it all depends on a series of big Ifs. It depends on all of us – the entire country – to follow the advice, to observe social distancing, and to keep that R down.

And to prevent re-infection from abroad, I am serving notice that it will soon be the time – with transmission significantly lower – to impose quarantine on people coming into this country by air.

And it is because of your efforts to get the R down and the number of infections down here, that this measure will now be effective.

And of course we will be monitoring our progress locally, regionally, and nationally and if there are outbreaks, if there are problems, we will not hesitate to put on the brakes.

We have been through the initial peak – but it is coming down the mountain that is often more dangerous.

We have a route, and we have a plan, and everyone in government has the all-consuming pressure and challenge to save lives, restore livelihoods and gradually restore the freedoms that we need.

But in the end this is a plan that everyone must make work.

And when I look at what you have done already.

The patience and common sense you have shown.

The fortitude of the elderly whose isolation we all want to end as fast as we can.

The incredible bravery and hard work of our NHS staff, our care workers.

The devotion and self-sacrifice of all those in every walk of life who are helping us to beat this disease.

Police, bus drivers, train drivers, pharmacists, supermarket workers, road hauliers, bin collectors, cleaners, security guards, postal workers, our teachers and a thousand more.

The scientists who are working round the clock to find a vaccine.

When I think of the millions of everyday acts of kindness and thoughtfulness that are being performed across this country.

And that have helped to get us through this first phase.

I know that we can use this plan to get us through the next.

And if we can’t do it by those dates, and if the alert level won’t allow it, we will simply wait and go on until we have got it right.

We will come back from this devilish illness.

We will come back to health, and robust health.

And though the UK will be changed by this experience, I believe we can be stronger and better than ever before. More resilient, more innovative, more economically dynamic, but also more generous and more sharing.

But for now we must stay alert, control the virus and save lives.

Thank you very much.

Published 10 May 2020 by HM Government.

Fight or Flight: How to lead during a crisis.

Can local shops save the High Street, post-COVID-19?

As the Coronavirus pandemic continues to hit the already struggling high street, KIS Finance has teamed up with retail expert, James Child, to look at how some local businesses are cleverly adapting to the changing retail environment.

With many small businesses now becoming central to their local communities, offering personal service and support during these challenging times, this report looks at whether the future of the high street may lay in their hands.

It’s no secret UK high streets have been in trouble in recent years. A shift in consumer spending has challenged high street shops, as people opt for online retailers which offer them convenience, choice, and cheaper prices.

While essential businesses like supermarkets, pharmacies and banks have been able to remain open during the UK lockdown, non-essential retailers were forced to close.

This has unfortunately seen a number of retailers fall into trouble. Since February, when the coronavirus first hit the UK, a number of stores have gone into administration, including:

- Oddbins – wine and drinks off-license business (February 2020)
- Brighthouse – rent-to-own retailer (March 2020)
- Laura Ashley – fashion retailer (March 2020)
- Oasis and Warehouse – fashion retailers (April 2020)
- Kath Kidston – vintage inspired fashion and accessories (April 2020)

Other retailers are having to consider drastic measures to survive. The Arcadia Group, which owners of fashion brands like Topshop, Miss Selfridge and Dorothy Perkins have served notice to landlords that they will be walking away from over 100 stores by summer's end.

It’s almost certain many other retailers are having to review their store portfolios and we may not see some of the big names reopen when the pandemic's finally over.

Online spending, however, has been increasing rapidly since the start of the lockdown as it offers zero contact shopping and delivery. According to ONS data, 22.3% of all retail sales were done online throughout the month of March 2020. That’s a 12.5% growth since the same time last year.

But, it’s not all doom and gloom!

It’s sad to hear an already struggling high street may have to wave goodbye to some of its biggest names, along with many hard hit smaller retailers, as a result of the pandemic. But this could be a chance for some local, small and independents to take their spots, if they can cleverly adapt to the new retail environment.

In a small silver lining of the pandemic, we've seen many local businesses and retailers step up and start to offer services to customers that they didn’t before.

KIS Finance have spoken to James Child, Head of Research at Estates Gazette, on what the high street will look like after the pandemic and how consumer shopping habits have shifted.

Is this a chance for local businesses to grow?

While a lot of small independent businesses have been forced to close during the pandemic, and unfortunately some may not reopen, others have been able to adapt and expand their services in order to keep going.

With most retailers being shut and supermarkets struggling to keep up with the demand for home deliveries, customers have been turning to local shops and suppliers instead. Some of these local businesses have set up delivery services for the first time and gained customers who didn’t use them or even know they existed before.

Many have turned to social media as an excellent way to reach out to their local market to promote their products and advertise their services. Local community pages on Facebook have seen their membership grow, as people promote and talk about local businesses that are serving their community.

James says: “There has been a swell of goodwill for both retailers and community groups which have come together during these difficult times.

Consumers will be more aware of the potential of local shopping than they perhaps were, previously.”

While e-commerce stores have been taking over from the high street in recent years, this enforced change to our shopping habits may well be a chance for small independent retailers to make a comeback.

Customers will have had the opportunity to try new products and services from local businesses that they may not have known existed before or wouldn’t have thought of using when more convenient or familiar options were open to them.

How can local retailers continue to flourish after the pandemic?

What the pandemic has taught us is just how important we all are to each other. Local businesses have tapped into the sense of community that we’re all craving amid the anxiety and concern that the pandemic has created.

This needs to carry on when ‘normal life’ resumes if we want our local retailers to survive.

Small shops and businesses can maximise their chances of maintaining their new customer base by focusing on what large retailers can’t offer; a personal, human touch. Large companies’ data bases may remember your birthday or recommend products you may be interested in based on your last order, but this is impersonal and automated. Only small, local businesses can connect with their customers in a real way and build up genuine and beneficial relationships.

When the pandemic ends, small businesses need to look at how they can continue to offer more to meet the needs of their customers.

People like a personal service, but when life gets busy, convenience often overtakes these needs. Post lockdown, these businesses need to keep offering delivery services to those who need this convenience if they want to hold onto those customers.

James says: “The relationship between local businesses and their customers is as important as it has always been. Development of those relationships at a human level can work to secure increased footfall and spend.
Customers are loyal to businesses and stores as they are to brands. Tapping into this has always been paramount to success, the current conditions have allowed these retailers to showcase their offer.

In order to maximize this during this relative window of opportunity, these retailers shouldn’t always need to replicate what larger retailers do, as its their differences that often set them apart.

Increasingly people are willing to pay a little more to support local stores. I believe this trend will continue in a post-COVID19 UK, especially for those with disposable income.”

Will people feel safer in small shops, even after social distancing measures are relaxed?

While it’s true that many of us will be eager for things to return to normal, we’re also likely to continue to feel a little nervous about gathering in large numbers again for some time. With the Government’s chief medical officer stating that the requirement for social distancing is expected to last until at least the end of the year, we’re all likely to find our concerns for our health and safety mean that we may prefer to avoid large stores and retail parks.

“Safety is important to people and it’s likely that whilst we can expect a spike in shopping trips post-lockdown, those social distancing measures we have become accustomed to will remain for some time.”

Consumers may feel safer visiting small shops where it could be easier to control numbers and maintain distance between customers in a way that large stores may struggle to do. For example, the one-way systems that many supermarkets have adopted would be difficult to replicate in a department store.

“Whilst it is true that consumers will be ready to spend, it is worth remembering the psychological impact that months of lockdown will have had on shopping and leisure habits. People may be more sceptical about spending time in busy enclosed spaces like shopping centres, but local high streets may be a more attractive proposition.”

Of course, in time people are likely to return to larger stores but by then using small local shops for many of their purchases may have become a habit that they choose to sustain.

Are people likely to adopt more sustainable shopping habits as a result of the pandemic?

With the government guidelines only allowing us to shop for essentials, and as infrequently as possible, this is seeing a reduction in consumers’ carbon footprints as a lot of people will be shopping far less regularly than they were previously and planning their purchases more carefully.

“Shopping less is more sustainable. By minimising the number of trips consumers take to the shops as well as shopping locally, they will be minimising vehicle emissions and therefore reducing their carbon footprint.”

Shopping more infrequently also means that people will be having to buy more in bulk, and more products in the dried, tinned and frozen sections where they aren’t able to pop to the shops every other day to get fresh ingredients.

“Shoppers are now heading to supermarkets less and buying more in bulk, a call back to the habits of a decade or more ago when the weekly shop was still the traditional model of food retail consumption in the UK.

What the crisis may have taught many is to think differently about waste and over consumption. In simpler terms, most people could probably live out of their cupboards for longer periods than
they suspected.”

The pandemic may have opened many people’s eyes to their previous level of unnecessary spending and the amount of waste that this has led to. It will be interesting to see if these reduced levels of consumption remain once restrictions are lifted.

If people can continue to shop in this way, going to the supermarket less regularly and shopping locally rather than opting for large out-of-town retail outlets, the positive environmental impact could also be lasting.

Will the pandemic have reshaped the future of the high street?

Our survey of UK consumers before the Coronavirus outbreak found that 61% of people believed the high street as we know it would disappear within the next 10 years, largely due to the competition of online retailers.

However, has our experience during the pandemic changed this prediction and how people feel about using the high street?

Large online retailers, like Amazon, still remain the biggest threat to the high street with convenience and price being the key factors of their success. But many local retailers have shown UK consumers just how important personal service and community really is.

“Often time and money are cited as a reason for shopping online, but we may see the goalposts move if there are wider societal ramifications from the effects of COVID-19.”

Local businesses have been there for us when we needed them, we need to be there for them when they need us if they’re going to continue to survive and flourish after the coronavirus has gone.

EDITOR: I have a personal case in point. A well known nationwide optician's chain (Vision Express) closed all of their branches with no warning, leaving panicking patients with no way to pick up glasses or contact lenses and no way to have broken or damaged glasses repaired or adjusted.

They eventually opened several 'emergency' branches, but as visiting the nearest would involve a 100 mile round trip by public transport, I declined to take such a risk.

Another chain optician Specsavers (a franchise, operated by a local optician, which might be where the difference lay) reached out to me and was able to repair my glasses. The frame was faulty, it transpired. (They employed sensible measures to make sure their staff and patients were protected from possible viral contamination.)

Which optician will I be getting my next pair of glasses from? My local Specsavers, of course.